“Time Series Analysis and Forecasting”: Exercises 20.47, 20.48, 20.49, 20.50, an

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“Time Series Analysis and Forecasting”: Exercises 20.47, 20.48, 20.49, 20.50, and 20.51

Submit your answers in a Microsoft Excel workbook, with each problem on a separate worksheet. Label each tab in the workbook with the exercise number. Highlight the answers in yellow and provide an interpretation in a text box.

Exercises 20.47–20.51 are based on the following problem.

  (Table) The revenues (in $millions) of a chain of ice cream stores are listed for each quarter during the previous 5 years. 

  Year

Quarter

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

1

16

14

17

18

21

2

25

27

31

29

30

3

31

32

40

45

52

4

24

23

27

24

32

  20.47 Plot the time series.

  20.48 Discuss why exponential smoothing is not recommended as a forecasting tool in this problem.

  20.49 Use regression analysis to determine the trend line.

  20.50 Determine the seasonal indexes.

  20.51 Using the seasonal indexes and trend line, forecast revenues for the next four quarters.

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